Citizens have been voting for the person who may well lead them into independence in 2027 in the 2025 Bougainville election. Voting began on September 5th, with counting starting on the 9th and results due by the 20th.
And being a rather important election has meant not just some serious electioneering, but also raised tensions not just in Bougainville, but across Papua New Guinea.
So, who is in the running, who might win, and what will it mean for Bougainville?
What the Bougainville?
OK, so if you’re reading the Young Pioneer Tours blog and have gotten this far, I’ll assume you have at least a bit of background on Bougainville. In case you don’t though, here’s a quick crash course.
Bougainville is the easternmost part of Papua New Guinea, a lush, tropical island chain with a fierce sense of identity. It was the scene of one of the Pacific’s bloodiest conflicts in the late 1980s and 1990s. The Bougainville Civil War began over the Panguna mine, environmental destruction, and a fight for autonomy, leaving tens of thousands dead and entire communities displaced.
A fragile peace was established in 2001 with the Bougainville Peace Agreement, and a roadmap was set for a referendum on independence. In 2019, Bougainvilleans overwhelmingly voted for independence from Papua New Guinea, with 98 percent in favor. The 2025 presidential election is the next big step in the slow march toward actual nationhood.
Bougainville Presidential Election Candidates
There are seven candidates in the Bougainville presidential election, which is a lot for a (future) country of just over 300,000 people. Ishmael Toroama of the Bougainville People’s Alliance Party is the incumbent, with Joe Lera, Member of the National Parliament of Papua New Guinea and candidate from the New Bougainville Party, in second place.
And the further down the list you get, the less likely they are to be crowned President.
- Ishmael Toroama – Incumbent President (since 2020) and candidate from the Bougainville People’s Alliance Party.
- Joe Lera – Member of the National Parliament of Papua New Guinea and candidate from the New Bougainville Party.
- Thomas Raivet – Former Papua New Guinea Defence Force officer and candidate from the Bougainville United Front Party.
- Sam Kauona – Former Bougainville Revolutionary Army commander and independent candidate.
- Nick Peniai – Candidate from the New Bougainville Party.
- Louis Smit – Independent candidate.
- Wilfred Higei – Independent candidate.
Fun fact: I met one of the candidates at the airport in Port Moresby. Alas, I can’t remember which one, only the opinion that he was unlikely to win.
How will the 2025 Bougainville Presidential Election work?
The election works much like a standard presidential vote, with voters casting ballots for their preferred candidate across the island’s nine constituencies. It’s a simple majority system, so the candidate with the most votes wins outright—no second rounds, no bullshit. Voting ran from September 5th, and the official count began on the 9th. The Electoral Commission has said results should be finalized by September 20th, but as anyone who has spent time in PNG knows, “should” is a loose concept. Counting can be slowed by logistics, storms, or just bureaucratic incompetence, so expect a bit of nail-biting suspense before the official winner is declared.
Stakes & the Bigger Picture
This isn’t just a regular election; it’s a pivot point for a whole nation in waiting. Whoever wins will steer Bougainville through the tricky waters of near-independence, handling negotiations with Papua New Guinea and international partners while trying to keep the island’s fragile peace intact. The stakes are huge: local politics are personal, loyalties run deep, and every decision could ripple into the region’s future.
Beyond Bougainville, the world is watching. The election could set a precedent for other independence movements, such as West Papua for example. And of course whatever happens could seriously reverberate in Papua New Guinea as whole.
The winner will have to balance the demands of the people, the expectations of foreign governments, and the ever-present threat of political instability. It’s a minefield, and literally everyone on Bougainville knows it.
And while no one wants to talk about it, they might also have to try to avert a war.
Will they be the first President of the Republic of Bougainville?
Will the winner be the first president of a sovereign Bougainville, or indeed whatever the new state decides to call itself? The plan is for independence to be declared in September 2027, and according to everyone we spoke to on the island, that’s still the goal.
In reality though, it’s complicated. Two-thirds of the Parliament of Papua New Guinea must approve Bougainville’s independence. For context, Bougainville holds just 3 of 111 seats in the PNG Parliament. Combine this with the fact that no PNG leader wants to be seen as the one breaking up the country, and you potentially have a recipe for serious political drama.
This election is therefore not just about who wins, but about who can navigate Bougainville through the maze of diplomacy, history, and local politics to finally deliver the island its hard-fought independence.
Click the link to check out our tours to Papua New Guinea and Bougainville.
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