Let’s be honest. If you have spent any time in Southeast Asia you already know that Cambodia and Thailand get along about as well as two drunks arguing over who owns the jukebox. Every few years things get heated borders light up and nationalist chest beating becomes a national sport on both sides. And once again here we are.
Yes people have died. Yes artillery has been fired. And no this is not just a minor diplomatic spat over temple ownership or dodgy cartography. This time it is louder bloodier and carrying a worrying undertone of actual war.
So what the hell is going on
The Border That Never Stopped Moving
The latest flare-up comes down as always to land. Border disputes have plagued the Cambodia Thailand relationship for decades. In theory a few international court rulings settled things. In practice nobody really gave a shit and the line on the map still shifts depending on which country’s soldiers woke up feeling territorial that morning. The usual suspect is Preah Vihear a gorgeous mountaintop temple that Cambodia technically owns but which sits close enough to the border for Thai ultranationalists to lose their minds over it. Again.
This time however the dispute did not stay confined to the temple. Rocket fire skirmishes and a steadily rising body count mean things are a little tenser than usual. It is no longer about heritage. It is about humiliation posturing and who gets to claim moral superiority while casually placing landmines in someone else’s rice field.
Who Would Win a War Nobody Wants
Thailand with its significantly bigger army better logistics and far superior air force has all the obvious advantages. Cambodia in contrast is fielding a military that seems to have been frozen in time sometime around the late eighties. But what it lacks in modern firepower it more than makes up for in sheer fury. Cambodian troops are not just defending a border they are defending national dignity in a country that still has not quite recovered from being invaded by everyone from France to Vietnam to itself.
If this turned into a real war and that is now a very real possibility Cambodia would probably lose. It would not be a massacre but it would not be pretty either. Thai soldiers are better equipped better supplied and far more likely to have working radios. But war is not always about who wins on paper.
Click to read our piece on the strongest militaries in South-East Asia.
Vietnam Might Eat the Leftovers
Here is where things get weird. If Cambodia started collapsing militarily you could bet your last riel that Vietnam would be watching with interest. Vietnam has history here. History that includes marching into Cambodia toppling the Khmer Rouge and then sticking around for a decade to stabilise things. If there were any hint of Thailand pushing too far Vietnam might decide that western Cambodia looked awfully tempting. Especially the bits they still quietly believe were taken from them centuries ago.
This could spiral fast, and not in a way that benefits anyone outside of the Vietnam and Thailand….
Could the Khmer Rouge Crawl Back Out of the Jungle
And before anyone gets smug about the Khmer Rouge being long gone take a closer look at Cambodian politics. While no one is openly flying the Pol Pot flag anymore there are still pockets of hardliners who remember the glory days of absolute control forced nationalism and purging anyone who wore glasses.
This means that while the Khmer Rouge itself would not reform per se, Cambodia would not take this stuff lying down. Therefore you would see a kinda pseudo-Khmer Rouge revolutionary group of Khmer who would do everything to fight foreign invaders.
The Refugees Are Real and Already Moving
Meanwhile ordinary Cambodians are once again doing what they do best fleeing. Thousands have already left the border regions crammed into trucks and oxcarts heading east and south to get away from the shelling.
Most international media will not cover this beyond a few pity images of barefoot children but this is the real cost. Every fresh round of conflict brings more refugees more displacement more trauma piled onto a country that already has more than its share.
Whose Narrative Is Winning
Thailand naturally is spinning its own story. According to Bangkok Cambodia provoked everything. They fired first. They are sheltering militants. They are creating a border crisis. Cambodia counters with its own tale Thailand is the aggressor stealing land ignoring treaties and using the fight to distract from domestic political chaos.
The truth probably sits somewhere in the middle as it always does, although who owns the actual temple less so. The temple is a Khmer one, and Thailand helping imperial Japan in the past should not really change this.
Should You Still Travel?
It means if you are planning on a border crossing between Poipet and Aranyaprathet or anything involving Preah Vihear maybe reconsider. Some crossings have been closed. Others are under military control. Even in areas far from the fighting tension is palpable. Expect heavier border checks more soldiers and a lot more suspicion if you are waving around a foreign passport and asking too many questions. Do not bother trying to go full amateur war correspondent. The locals are not impressed and the military on either side is not known for its sense of humour.
The two nations though remain alarmingly open with there even being regular flights between the two nations.
Peace Will Prevail but Do Not Expect a Refund
Will it go full scale war probably not. Should you cancel all travel plans and hide under the bed also probably not. These things flare up. They always do. Eventually some ASEAN meeting will happen. Some paperwork will be signed. Smiles will be forced. Peace will be declared. And then the same fight will happen again in two years.
Just do not expect Thailand to give any land back. That ship has well and truly sailed and it is flying a Thai flag.
Until then travel with eyes open ears to the ground and maybe do not ask the tuk tuk driver for his opinion on border policy unless you are prepared for a very long conversation.
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