As of today a major escalation in the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been announced. And while it does not yet amount to all out war it has involved the bombing of several Afghan cities and could very well lead to significant issues within the region.
This of course may well result in disruption to travel between both countries as well as travel within the region.
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What has actually happened?
In the past few days there has been a clear escalation of an already existing conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan’s military has carried out multiple air strikes and bombing raids on Afghan territory including Kabul Kandahar Paktia and other eastern provinces. These strikes have struck military positions allegedly associated with militant groups but have also affected civilian areas. Afghan government spokespersons and local officials have confirmed explosions and reported deaths and injuries among civilians and fighters alike. Afghanistan’s forces have retaliated with artillery and small scale counter attacks near the border.
Both governments have issued statements accusing the other of aggression and refusing to back down. Pakistan has said it will continue operations until it believes the threat is reduced. Afghanistan has said it will defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The situation is still developing and violence continues at the time of writing.
This escalation is serious. It is far more intense than normal border skirmishes. It is not yet a full blown all out war in the Russia Ukraine sense with massed armies slugging it out along extended front lines. What is unfolding is heavier bombing artillery exchanges and increased mobility of troops and equipment. Civilians have been displaced in some areas and travel and transport networks are being disrupted. Flights and road travel in and out of Afghanistan are already affected and the security situation remains volatile. There is no indication that this will simply blow over overnight.
What might happen next?
There are only a few realistic possibilities from here. One is that diplomatic pressure from other countries persuades both sides to scale back and agree a ceasefire. That might see violence drop over the course of weeks and allow travel to stabilise. Another possibility is that this intensifies into a more sustained conflict.
If that happens Pakistan could increase air and artillery operations and Afghan forces could widen their response. Tribal regions such as Waziristan could become involved because loyalties there are often more with local commanders or with the Taliban than with Islamabad. A longer conflict would cause greater instability and could last months rather than weeks.
Might this affect travel to the region?
Yes it absolutely does. While flights in and out of Kabul are still listed on airline timetables they are now irregular sketchy and prone to sudden cancellation. For obvious security reasons the land borders between Afghanistan and Pakistan cannot at all be used at present. All but essential travel to the country is strongly discouraged. Anyone planning to enter Afghanistan or the border regions of Pakistan should seriously reconsider their plans until the situation is more stable.
With regards to our tours while we are hopeful of a speedy peace between the two sides there is a possibility that the April tour may have to be suspended. There may also be an effect on independent tours to the country. Anyone with bookings should expect disruption.
We are currently monitoring the situation closely and are in constant contact with our local partners on the ground. As things progress we will be in touch with all customers planning to travel to the country with us and provide up to date information.
Click to see our Afghanistan Tours.
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